Serie A – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 12:00Stadio OlimpicoNot started
Roma
3rd • 22 Pts
Inter
1st • 34 Pts
Prediction Summary
30%
ROM Win
range 25%–35%
28%
Draw
range 26%–29%
42%
INT Win
range 37%–48%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: ROM 1.19 · INT 1.46
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Roma | Inter | |
|---|---|---|
| 1482 | Elo rating | 1731 |
| L-L-D-L-W | Form (last 5) | W-D-W-W-W |
| 1.30 | Goals for / game | 1.90 |
| 1.40 | Goals against / game | 0.40 |
| 1.33 | xG for / game | 1.54 |
| 1.30 | xG against / game | 0.87 |
| 43% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 67% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Roma
No reported absences.
Inter
- K. SchmidtDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Roma Elo 1482 vs Inter 1731 (-249).
- Recent Form: Roma (L-L-D-L-W) vs Inter (W-D-W-W-W), last 5.
- Goals: Roma score 1.30 / concede 1.40 per game; Inter 1.90 / 0.40 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Roma average 1.33 xG, Inter 1.54 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Roma have won 43% of home games in the sample; Inter 67% away.
- Player Availability: Roma: 0 absent/doubtful; Inter: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Roma 14 days rest, Inter 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -1.00 for Roma over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Team Strength (Elo)55%
- Home Advantage31%
- Recent Form5%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)4%
- Expected Goals (xG)4%
- Player Availability0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 06:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.