Serie A – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 14:30Gewiss StadiumNot started
Atalanta
7th • 15 Pts
Lazio
5th • 17 Pts
Prediction Summary
42%
ATA Win
range 37%–47%
28%
Draw
range 26%–29%
30%
LAZ Win
range 26%–35%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: ATA 1.45 · LAZ 1.20
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
55%
BTTS – No
45%
Team Comparison
| Atalanta | Lazio | |
|---|---|---|
| 1444 | Elo rating | 1402 |
| L-D-L-W-L | Form (last 5) | W-W-L-W-W |
| 0.80 | Goals for / game | 1.20 |
| 1.30 | Goals against / game | 1.50 |
| 0.98 | xG for / game | 1.27 |
| 1.19 | xG against / game | 1.39 |
| 38% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 19% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Atalanta
No reported absences.
Lazio
No reported absences.
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Atalanta Elo 1444 vs Lazio 1402 (+42).
- Recent Form: Atalanta (L-D-L-W-L) vs Lazio (W-W-L-W-W), last 5.
- Goals: Atalanta score 0.80 / concede 1.30 per game; Lazio 1.20 / 1.50 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Atalanta average 0.98 xG, Lazio 1.27 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Atalanta have won 38% of home games in the sample; Lazio 19% away.
- Player Availability: Atalanta: 0 absent/doubtful; Lazio: 0.
- Schedule & Rest: Atalanta 14 days rest, Lazio 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference -0.40 for Atalanta over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage57%
- Recent Form18%
- Team Strength (Elo)17%
- Expected Goals (xG)5%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)3%
- Player Availability0%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 08:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.