Serie A – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 16:00Diego MaradonaNot started
Napoli
4th • 18 Pts
Fiorentina
8th • 14 Pts
Prediction Summary
48%
NAP Win
range 43%–53%
27%
Draw
range 26%–28%
25%
FIO Win
range 21%–30%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: NAP 1.59 · FIO 1.10
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
50%
Under 2.5 Goals
50%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Napoli | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| 1484 | Elo rating | 1367 |
| D-W-L-L-L | Form (last 5) | D-W-W-L-L |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 1.10 |
| 1.70 | Goals against / game | 1.80 |
| 1.37 | xG for / game | 1.03 |
| 1.61 | xG against / game | 1.65 |
| 48% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 24% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Napoli
No reported absences.
Fiorentina
- L. NovakSuspension
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Napoli Elo 1484 vs Fiorentina 1367 (+118).
- Recent Form: Napoli (D-W-L-L-L) vs Fiorentina (D-W-W-L-L), last 5.
- Goals: Napoli score 1.50 / concede 1.70 per game; Fiorentina 1.10 / 1.80 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Napoli average 1.37 xG, Fiorentina 1.03 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Napoli have won 48% of home games in the sample; Fiorentina 24% away.
- Player Availability: Napoli: 0 absent/doubtful; Fiorentina: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Napoli 14 days rest, Fiorentina 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference 0.00 for Napoli over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage48%
- Team Strength (Elo)40%
- Recent Form9%
- Player Availability2%
- Expected Goals (xG)2%
- Schedule & Rest0%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 10:00
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.