Serie A – Matchday 3
Sun, Nov 15, 2026 – 19:30Allianz StadiumNot started
Juventus
2nd • 22 Pts
AC Milan
6th • 15 Pts
Prediction Summary
51%
JUV Win
range 45%–56%
26%
Draw
range 25%–28%
23%
MIL Win
range 19%–27%
Most likely score
1 – 1
only 13% likely — not a forecast of the exact result
Expected goals: JUV 1.66 · MIL 1.05
Other markets
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
BTTS – Yes
54%
BTTS – No
46%
Team Comparison
| Juventus | AC Milan | |
|---|---|---|
| 1570 | Elo rating | 1520 |
| W-L-W-L-W | Form (last 5) | L-L-D-W-L |
| 2.20 | Goals for / game | 1.10 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 1.80 |
| 1.91 | xG for / game | 1.12 |
| 1.05 | xG against / game | 1.51 |
| 43% | Home win rate | — |
| — | Away win rate | 43% |
| 14 | Rest days | 14 |
Player Availability
Juventus
No reported absences.
AC Milan
- J. NovakDoubtful
Confirmed lineups are published ~1 hour before kickoff and are not yet available.
Analysis & Key Insights
- Team Strength: Juventus Elo 1570 vs AC Milan 1520 (+50).
- Recent Form: Juventus (W-L-W-L-W) vs AC Milan (L-L-D-W-L), last 5.
- Goals: Juventus score 2.20 / concede 1.20 per game; AC Milan 1.10 / 1.80 (last 10).
- Expected Goals: Juventus average 1.91 xG, AC Milan 1.12 (residualised vs Elo before use).
- Home Advantage: Juventus have won 43% of home games in the sample; AC Milan 43% away.
- Player Availability: Juventus: 0 absent/doubtful; AC Milan: 1.
- Schedule & Rest: Juventus 14 days rest, AC Milan 14 days.
- Head-to-Head: Average goal difference +1.00 for Juventus over recent meetings.
Predicted Scoreline Distribution
Key Factors (This Match)
- Home Advantage50%
- Expected Goals (xG)18%
- Team Strength (Elo)18%
- Head-to-Head (H2H)7%
- Recent Form6%
- Player Availability1%
- Schedule & Rest0%
Share of the total adjustment to expected goals contributed by each factor in this match.
Model Information
- Model:
- Elo + Poisson + Dixon-Coles (elo-poisson-dc-v1)
- Prediction made:
- Nov 15, 2026 – 13:30
- Data completeness:
- 100%
- History used:
- 84 prior matches (both teams)
- Data source:
- Synthetic demo data
Data completeness = half history depth (40+ prior matches = full) + half optional inputs present (xG, availability, rest, H2H). It is not a win probability.
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Upgrade to Premium →Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. The long-term research target is 90%+ accuracy on narrowly defined markets — this is a goal, not a verified result. Figures shown are measured on simulated DEMO matches until real data is connected.